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Meteorology and Satellite images

The study of ECMWF forecast skill over ESO observatories ([CRS4 97]) has shown that the global forecasts of cloudiness and water vapour did not reach the type of accuracy needed for astronomy. A more successful method proposed by [Erasmus 97] combines synoptic scale circulation modeling with ECMWF standard forecasts and analyses (geopotential height, wind components, temperature and vertical velocity) as well as local surface relative humidity to extract from a 6.7 $\mu$m satellite image, the pixels which will pass over the observatory during the period predicted, and the corresponding water vapour content. The large scale circulation patterns affecting the Chilean coast are presented on Fig. 2. The particular situation of the Atacama desert with respect to cloudiness and water vapour is clearly illustrated. Here follows a summary of the presentation by the author:

In summer the pressure systems move southwards and the Subtropical high pressure (H) strengthens and expands its area of influence. Subsidence in the high creates a strong temperature inversion at about 1000m above the surface which traps low level stratocumulus clouds below it (notice the area of medium grey speckelled cloud in and around the high). The subtropical high is a semi-permanent circulation feature that only experiences minor position changes as the high develops east or west of its mean position. The high produces clear dry conditions over Northern Chile. Occasional incursions of moisture and cloud may occur over Northern Chile from the north in summer if the high weakens and the anticyclonic flow over the Amazon basin intensifies.

In winter the pressure systems move northwards and the subtropics comes under the influence of migratory wave-like systems that propagate from west to east in the prevailing flow. The high pressure area of the wave (the ridge) is warm and dry while the low pressure area (the trough) is cool and moist. Middle and upper tropospheric clouds can typically be found along the leading edge of the ridge and trough in association with surface warm and cold fronts. Trough and ridge development, which is usually slight over the Southeastern Pacific, may add a meridional component to the cloud cover and water vapour advection patterns.


next up previous
Next: Forecast Skill Up: Forecasting Cloudiness and Water Previous: Forecasting Cloudiness and Water
Marc Sarazin
10/7/1997