ESO has been conducting a wide survey of existing and potential forecasting techniques and, on the basis of a strategy described on Fig. 1, several feasibility studies were initiated from 1992 onwards, both internally and externally. Most of them are completed or close to completion. It is thus time to prepare the specifications of the operational tools and services to be developed for the VLT.
For this purpose, a workshop on Forecasting Astronomical Observing Conditions took place on 29-30 May, 1997 at ESO Garching. A summary of the main results is presented in what follows, trying to establish the current State of the Art applicable to Chilean Observatories as a whole.
In his introductory talk, ESO Dir. General stressed that ESO is aiming at the
highest observing efficiency at the VLT to make possible the scientific
discoveries the astronomical community legitimately expects from such a tool.
The DG also indicated that the cost of a night
of operation of the observatory (
100 kDM) gives the scale for
deciding the extent to which ESO should push research in modeling and
prediction. He noted in particular that he would probably exclude launching a dedicated
satellite (as proposed by one of the speakers) but that he would certainly support
further measurement campaigns or local instrumentation development if deemed necessary.
In what follows, the meteorologists attempt to answer questions preoccupying most individuals involved in the planning of observatory operation. A common tool for all studies is the unvaluable forecast service provided by ECMWF (European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) or its US equivalent NCEP (National Center for Environmental Prediction). We are grateful to ECMWF to have accepted ESO's invitation to be represented at this workshop to introduce the participants to the complex world of forecasting.
