ACTIVE LAYERS PREDICTION THROUGH GFS MODEL FORECAST ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ NIGHT HOUR-UT ACTIVE LAYERS KM(MASS) FORECASTED BY GFS KM ============================================================================== 16-17 00-03 0.5-3.5, 10-16 CL : 12-16+, AL : 3-4 03-06 10-16 CL : 14-16+, AL : none 06-09 10-16, 3-6 CL : 14-16+, AL : 4 17-18 00-03 Ground, 10-16 CL : 12-16+, AL : ground-4 03-06 10-16 CL : 11-16+, AL : none 06-09 10-16 CL : 11-16+, AL : none 18-19 00-03 Ground, 3-16 CL : ground-3, 11-16+, AL : none 03-06 3-16 CL : ground-3, 11-16+, AL : none 06-09 Ground-16 CL : ground-3, 11-16+, AL : none 19-20 00-03 1.5-16 CL : 12-16+, AL : none 03-06 Ground, 8-10 CL : 14-16+, AL : none 06-09 Ground CL : 14-16+, AL : none 20-21 00-03 ALL (main:4) CL : 14-16+, AL : 6-7 03-06 ALL (main:4) CL : 12-16+, AL : 6-7.5 06-09 ALL (main:4) CL : 12-16+, AL : 6-7.5 21-22 00-03 1-8 (main:4) CL : 12-16+, AL : none 03-06 1-8 (main:4) CL : 14-16+, 3-4, AL : 7.5-9 <-------------------- INTERESTING !! link between CL-AL 06-09 1-8 (main:4) CL : 14-16+, 3-4, 7.5-9, AL : none <-------------------- INTERESTING !! link between CL-AL 22-23 00-03 ground-4 CL : ground-3.5, 14-16+, AL : 5-6 03-06 2-6 CL : ground-4, 14-16+, AL : 5-6.5 06-09 3-5 CL : 4.5-6.5, 14-16+, AL: none <-------------------- INTERESTING !! link between CL-AL 23-24 00-03 NO DATA 03-06 NO DATA 06-09 NO DATA 24-25 00-03 ground-12 (main:7-8) CL : 5, 10-16, AL : ground 03-06 ground, 8 CL : 3.5-5, 10-16, AL : none 06-09 main:7-8 CL : 4-5, 10-16, AL : 6 25-26 00-03 03-06 06-09 26-27 00-03 03-06 06-09 27-28 00-03 03-06 06-09 28-29 00-03 03-06 06-09 29-30 00-03 03-06 06-09 CL : So-called Critical Layers (definition by ARL-NOAA : dT/dz > 0.005, and DT > 2K). AL : Not specifically defined. Here are depicted only the relevant cases where an instability is apparent in the turbulence profile NB: As GFS does not take in account mountains, parameters forecasts between 0-5 might be wrong. In this study it was assumed that the main layers remain the same but with a change in their structure. "10-16" means that the layer is between 10 and 16 kilometers high. "5, 7" means that there are two layers, 5 km and 7 km high. GFS forecast issued at 00Z (beginnig of the astronomical twilight, here at Paranal)